Sat, Jan 14, 2023·Ball Arena, Denver
Ottawa Senators 0, Colorado Avalanche 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 010 | 011 | 08 | 029 |
| COL | 212 | 214 | 37 | 733 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:45COLMikko RantanenGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Evan Rodrigues · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 7:50COLAlex NewhookAssists: Logan O'Connor, Andrew Cogliano · Slap, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 9:05COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Devon Toews · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–3
- P2 15:57COLMikko RantanenAssists: Alex Newhook, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–4
- P3 8:18COLArtturi LehkonenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–5
- P3 15:49COLBrad HuntAssists: Andreas Englund, Artturi Lehkonen · Slap, 0.04 xG0–6
- P3 18:10COLAlex NewhookAssists: Logan O'Connor · Snap, 0.14 xG0–7
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:20OTTShane Pinto: Holding2 min
- P1 14:34COLMikko Rantanen: Interference2 min
- P2 3:01OTTAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:01COLAndreas Englund: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:54COLKurtis MacDermid: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:21OTTNick Holden: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 9:36COLSampo Ranta: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:46OTTTravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:46COLLogan O'Connor: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Watson – Kastelic4:57
xG 0.33–0.14 (70%)attempts 8–4goals 0–2
- DeBrincat – Tkachuk – Stützle12:22
xG 0.50–0.65 (44%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Gambrell – Kelly – Lucchini7:21
xG 0.06–0.38 (13%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Giroux – Batherson – Pinto14:54
xG 0.73–1.11 (40%)attempts 18–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Brannstrom8:50
xG 0.33–0.19 (64%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
- Chabot – Zub11:56
xG 0.48–0.51 (49%)attempts 8–19goals 0–2
- Holden – Sanderson3:06
xG 0.11–0.14 (43%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Rodrigues9:57
xG 1.13–0.06 (95%)attempts 21–5goals 1–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen2:06
xG 0.08–0.04 (67%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Compher – Rantanen – Newhook5:28
xG 0.31–0.33 (48%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Cogliano – O'Connor – Meyers2:23
xG 0.03–0.12 (19%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Englund2:54
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Girard – Makar2:51
xG 0.24–0.09 (73%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard7:33
xG 0.46–0.33 (58%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).