Sat, Jan 14, 2023·TD Garden, Boston
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Boston Bruins 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 15 | 112 | 14 | 321 |
| BOS | 115 | 213 | 16 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:45TORMichael BuntingPPAssists: John Tavares, Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 15:02BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 2:43TORPierre EngvallUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 5:52BOSDavid PastrnakUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 10:33BOSA.J. GreerAssists: Nick Foligno, Tomas Nosek · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 3:17TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Michael Bunting, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 18:44BOSMatt GrzelcykGWGAssists: Taylor Hall, Brandon Carlo · Slap, 0.05 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:43TORWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:43BOSNick Foligno: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 4:01BOSCharlie McAvoy: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:43TORDryden Hunt: Interference2 min
- P2 0:12TORMichael Bunting: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:12BOSTrent Frederic: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:42BOSCharlie Coyle: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00BOSA.J. Greer: Misconduct10 min
- P2 0:00TORWayne Simmonds: Misconduct10 min
- P3 9:08TORMitch Marner: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Kampf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBunting – Marner – Matthews5:08
xG 0.47–0.01 (97%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Kerfoot – Hunt3:29
xG 0.12–0.12 (50%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Tavares – Jarnkrok – Marner6:03
xG 0.27–0.31 (46%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Nylander – Bunting – Matthews8:23
xG 0.42–0.47 (47%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Holl13:09
xG 0.82–0.46 (64%)attempts 17–11goals 1–1
- Liljegren – Sandin14:31
xG 0.44–0.33 (57%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Holl – Rielly2:11
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Nosek – Greer4:12
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Coyle – Zacha – Frederic9:48
xG 0.53–0.45 (54%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak13:19
xG 0.73–0.67 (52%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
- Krejci – Smith – Hall8:52
xG 0.28–0.46 (38%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy9:05
xG 0.64–0.34 (66%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Forbort – Clifton12:20
xG 0.57–0.39 (59%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Carlo9:51
xG 0.81–0.70 (54%)attempts 12–12goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).