Sat, Jan 14, 2023·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Vancouver Canucks 3, Florida Panthers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 19 | 114 | 115 | 338 |
| FLA | 115 | 315 | 05 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:35VANJack StudnickaAssists: Ilya Mikheyev · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 8:58FLARyan LombergAssists: Givani Smith, Gustav Forsling · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 0:39VANTyler MyersAssists: Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser · Snap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 1:46FLAEric StaalAssists: Josh Mahura, Nick Cousins · Deflected, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 3:06FLAAaron EkbladPPAssists: Brandon Montour, Matthew Tkachuk · Slap, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 9:51FLAAleksander BarkovPPGWGAssists: Sam Reinhart, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 10:02VANBo HorvatPPAssists: Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 10:18FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Interference2 min
- P2 2:12FLARyan Lomberg: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:12VANDakota Joshua: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 2:12VANDakota Joshua: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:14FLAAnton Lundell: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:00VANBo Horvat: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:26FLAGivani Smith: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:55VANLane Pederson: Interference2 min
- P3 8:56FLAEric Staal: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:43FLAAaron Ekblad: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBoeser – Pettersson – Kuzmenko11:31
xG 0.61–0.28 (68%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Miller – Horvat – Garland11:45
xG 0.78–0.59 (57%)attempts 17–17goals 0–0
- Pederson – Studnicka – Mikheyev9:24
xG 0.21–0.34 (38%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
- Lazar – Joshua – Lockwood4:10
xG 0.08–0.32 (19%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Ekman-Larsson11:09
xG 1.08–0.62 (64%)attempts 18–9goals 1–1
- Schenn – Hughes13:52
xG 0.59–0.36 (62%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Myers – Hughes3:04
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk12:31
xG 1.02–0.38 (73%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Barkov – Reinhart – Lundell11:43
xG 0.26–0.31 (46%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Staal – Cousins – Luostarinen9:26
xG 0.23–0.47 (33%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
- White – Lomberg – Smith6:14
xG 0.38–0.69 (35%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Mahura12:39
xG 0.40–0.27 (60%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Staal – Montour13:50
xG 0.53–0.58 (48%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Forsling15:19
xG 0.92–1.01 (48%)attempts 13–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).