Mon, Jan 16, 2023·TD Garden, Boston
Philadelphia Flyers 0, Boston Bruins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 09 | 07 | 013 | 029 |
| BOS | 211 | 211 | 27 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:38BOSDavid PastrnakGWGAssists: Pavel Zacha, David Krejci · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 15:05BOSPavel ZachaAssists: David Krejci, Hampus Lindholm · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 3:55BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Patrice Bergeron · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 4:41BOSPavel ZachaAssists: David Krejci · Deflected, 0.04 xG0–4
- P3 0:36BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy · Slap, 0.08 xG0–5
- P3 8:04BOSMatt GrzelcykAssists: Charlie McAvoy, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–6
Penalties (15)
- P1 9:48BOSA.J. Greer: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 5:15BOSTaylor Hall: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:33PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:33BOSNick Foligno: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:54PHIMorgan Frost: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:29BOSBrandon Carlo: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:57PHIZack MacEwen: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:57BOSHampus Lindholm: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:57PHIZack MacEwen: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:30PHINicolas Deslauriers: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:30BOSA.J. Greer: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:30PHINicolas Deslauriers: Misconduct10 min
- P3 7:30BOSA.J. Greer: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:24BOSCharlie McAvoy: Holding2 min
- P3 14:45BOSPatrice Bergeron: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Tippett – Frost2:03
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Tippett – Frost5:35
xG 0.04–0.09 (29%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Brown – MacEwen5:51
xG 0.07–0.25 (22%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Konecny – Cates – Farabee6:29
xG 0.33–0.58 (36%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – York3:17
xG 0.28–0.09 (76%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Provorov4:54
xG 0.13–0.15 (47%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Seeler – Ristolainen7:37
xG 0.15–0.27 (35%)attempts 8–10goals 0–2
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Hall – Frederic7:14
xG 0.62–0.24 (72%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Krejci – Pastrnak – Zacha8:13
xG 0.59–0.22 (73%)attempts 10–8goals 3–0
- Foligno – Nosek – Greer8:11
xG 0.47–0.19 (71%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith7:59
xG 0.13–0.46 (22%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Carlo12:36
xG 0.77–0.33 (70%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Forbort – Clifton10:16
xG 0.49–0.24 (67%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy13:12
xG 0.73–0.73 (50%)attempts 17–16goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).