Mon, Jan 16, 2023·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
New York Rangers 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 213 | 113 | 07 | 333 |
| CBJ | 04 | 08 | 113 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:39NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 19:02NYRBarclay GoodrowPPGWGAssists: K'Andre Miller, Kaapo Kakko · Deflected, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 11:47NYRVitali KravtsovAssists: Filip Chytil, Barclay Goodrow · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–0
- P3 1:21CBJAndrew PeekeAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Jack Roslovic · Snap, 0.06 xG3–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:54NYRVincent Trocheck: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:50CBJMathieu Olivier: Boarding2 min
- P1 11:50CBJNick Blankenburg: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:00NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:50CBJKirill Marchenko: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 7:21CBJSean Kuraly: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:45NYRJonny Brodzinski: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:26CBJAdam Boqvist: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:38NYRJacob Trouba: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Roslovic
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Vesey – Panarin9:37
xG 0.53–0.05 (91%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Brodzinski – Blais – Leschyshyn8:53
xG 0.54–0.08 (87%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Chytil – Kravtsov8:32
xG 0.65–0.22 (75%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Vesey – Chytil – Kravtsov2:08
xG 0.14–0.02 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren11:21
xG 0.68–0.23 (75%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Harpur – Schneider10:59
xG 0.46–0.04 (92%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Trouba – Miller14:53
xG 0.55–0.38 (59%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Laine6:10
xG 0.20–0.17 (54%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Jenner – Marchenko2:45
xG 0.04–0.03 (53%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Jenner – Robinson2:38
xG 0.02–0.11 (14%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Bemstrom – Marchenko – Johnson2:40
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Blankenburg2:19
xG 0.20–0.14 (60%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Boqvist – Blankenburg2:07
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Peeke3:08
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).