Tue, Jan 17, 2023·Capital One Arena, Washington
Minnesota Wild 4, Washington Capitals 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 03 | 314 | 15 | 422 |
| WSH | 113 | 19 | 014 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:57WSHMartin FehérváryAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 0:50MINJared SpurgeonUnassisted · Slap, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 5:05WSHDylan StromeAssists: Martin Fehérváry, Alex Ovechkin · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 13:12MINJonas BrodinAssists: Connor Dewar, Mathew Dumba · Snap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 18:15MINJared SpurgeonGWGAssists: Connor Dewar, Ryan Reaves · Slap, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 19:06MINJoel Eriksson EkENAssists: Frederick Gaudreau · Backhand, 0.79 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:02MINMats Zuccarello: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 9:02WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:57WSHNicolas Aube-Kubel: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:57MINBrandon Duhaime: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:43WSHLars Eller: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:51MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:27MINJordan Greenway: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Reaves – Duhaime – Dewar6:12
xG 0.05–0.21 (20%)attempts 4–7goals 2–0
- Hartman – Gaudreau – Boldy7:09
xG 0.10–0.46 (18%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek9:10
xG 0.21–0.64 (24%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Steel11:57
xG 0.14–0.92 (13%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Merrill – Addison9:39
xG 0.24–0.55 (30%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Middleton17:22
xG 0.26–1.36 (16%)attempts 15–24goals 2–1
- Brodin – Dumba12:33
xG 0.09–1.25 (7%)attempts 7–17goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Aube-Kubel – Strome8:45
xG 0.61–0.09 (87%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Johansson – Kuznetsov – Hathaway6:19
xG 0.50–0.07 (87%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Oshie – Eller – Sheary8:07
xG 0.55–0.15 (79%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Backstrom – Wilson – Milano10:21
xG 0.17–0.33 (35%)attempts 5–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Jensen12:36
xG 1.30–0.02 (98%)attempts 22–4goals 0–0
- Gustafsson – van Riemsdyk11:26
xG 1.11–0.28 (80%)attempts 16–10goals 0–2
- Orlov – Fehérváry4:56
xG 0.28–0.01 (96%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).