Tue, Jan 17, 2023·Centre Bell, Montreal
Winnipeg Jets 1, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 06 | 110 | 010 | 126 |
| MTL | 010 | 311 | 17 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:24WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Josh Morrissey, Nikolaj Ehlers · Slap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 7:46MTLEvgenii DadonovAssists: Justin Barron, Christian Dvorak · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 9:28MTLMike HoffmanGWGAssists: Kirby Dach, Justin Barron · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 13:31MTLEvgenii DadonovAssists: Christian Dvorak, David Savard · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 4:19MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Kirby Dach, Mike Matheson · Snap, 0.27 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:43WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:57WPGKarson Kuhlman: Hooking2 min
- P1 0:00MTLRem Pitlick: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:25WPGMorgan Barron: Holding2 min
- P2 18:57MTLCole Caufield: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:23MTLArber Xhekaj: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:23WPGAdam Lowry: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Barron – Kuhlman3:24
xG 0.55–0.04 (94%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Ehlers – Connor – Dubois10:16
xG 0.94–0.74 (56%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Perfetti8:46
xG 0.32–0.17 (65%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Lowry – Perfetti3:39
xG 0.14–0.01 (92%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Pionk10:04
xG 0.59–0.06 (90%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Pionk – Heinola3:07
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Pionk2:39
xG 0.29–0.05 (86%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Anderson – Dach9:09
xG 0.81–0.15 (84%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Dadonov – Dvorak – Pezzetta6:49
xG 0.40–0.19 (68%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Pitlick – Pezzetta – Harvey-Pinard3:04
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Ylonen – Caufield11:17
xG 0.44–0.81 (35%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Harris3:14
xG 0.52–0.07 (88%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Barron – Xhekaj3:14
xG 0.30–0.05 (85%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Savard – Matheson9:00
xG 0.72–0.49 (59%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).