Tue, Jan 17, 2023·United Center, Chicago
Buffalo Sabres 3, Chicago Blackhawks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 211 | 110 | 010 | 02 | 333 |
| CHI | 14 | 09 | 210 | 13 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:41CHIConnor MurphyAssists: Philipp Kurashev, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 12:15BUFVictor OlofssonAssists: Tyson Jost, Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 19:53BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Jeff Skinner, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 6:21BUFPeyton KrebsSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–1
- P3 1:34CHIPhilipp KurashevAssists: Seth Jones, Taylor Raddysh · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 19:04CHISeth JonesAssists: Philipp Kurashev, Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- OT 2:24CHISeth JonesGWGAssists: Tyler Johnson · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P2 3:10CHIJack Johnson: Boarding2 min
- P2 5:34BUFJJ Peterka: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 1:34BUFRasmus Dahlin: Misconduct10 min
- P3 5:58CHIConnor Murphy: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Domi won the faceoff against Krebs
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestCozens – Quinn – Peterka9:50
xG 0.62–0.11 (84%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs11:10
xG 0.49–0.10 (82%)attempts 16–3goals 0–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson10:32
xG 0.64–0.27 (70%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Olofsson – Jost – Mittelstadt11:34
xG 0.70–0.68 (51%)attempts 10–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Power18:27
xG 1.60–0.66 (71%)attempts 24–15goals 2–0
- Bryson – Lyubushkin8:34
xG 0.25–0.10 (71%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
- Bryson – Samuelsson3:05
xG 0.23–0.10 (68%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Toews – Raddysh – Kurashev12:32
xG 0.71–0.72 (50%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
- Athanasiou – Dickinson – Lafferty12:03
xG 0.23–0.55 (29%)attempts 10–9goals 0–2
- Kane – Johnson – Domi12:05
xG 0.27–0.60 (31%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Entwistle – Johnson6:20
xG 0.01–0.44 (2%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Phillips3:00
xG 0.30–0.05 (85%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- McCabe – Jones14:53
xG 1.07–0.94 (53%)attempts 20–17goals 1–2
- Murphy – Jones3:15
xG 0.09–0.02 (85%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).