Wed, Jan 18, 2023·UBS Arena, Elmont
Boston Bruins 4, New York Islanders 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 06 | 29 | 29 | 424 |
| NYI | 110 | 010 | 06 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:41NYIZach PariseAssists: Sebastian Aho, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 7:48BOSCharlie McAvoyAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Charlie Coyle · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 11:00BOSDerek ForbortGWGAssists: David Krejci, Pavel Zacha · Poke, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 5:03BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy · Snap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 15:38BOSTrent FredericAssists: Charlie Coyle, Craig Smith · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:02BOSDavid Pastrnak: Cross checking2 min
- P1 11:23NYIHudson Fasching: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:16BOSCharlie McAvoy: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:49BOSDavid Pastrnak: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:15NYIBrock Nelson: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:43BOSPatrice Bergeron: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:22NYISebastian Aho: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:36BOSJoona Koppanen: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:48NYINoah Dobson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:40BOSHampus Lindholm: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 0:00BOSPavel Zacha: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith6:30
xG 0.34–0.03 (92%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Krejci – Hall – Pastrnak2:55
xG 0.07–0.12 (37%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Foligno – Greer – Koppanen5:59
xG 0.05–0.14 (28%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Krejci – Pastrnak – Zacha7:11
xG 0.39–0.62 (38%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Clifton2:02
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Forbort – Clifton13:31
xG 0.50–0.54 (48%)attempts 8–15goals 2–0
- Lindholm – Carlo12:15
xG 0.34–0.49 (41%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParise – Pageau – Fasching6:57
xG 0.61–0.29 (68%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:20
xG 0.19–0.13 (60%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Bailey – Barzal – Dufour5:12
xG 0.14–0.14 (50%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Lee – Nelson – Beauvillier8:41
xG 0.24–0.51 (32%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Romanov10:57
xG 0.96–0.67 (59%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Pulock – Cholowski8:34
xG 0.19–0.04 (84%)attempts 10–1goals 0–1
- Aho – Dobson11:24
xG 0.48–0.35 (58%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).