Wed, Jan 18, 2023·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Colorado Avalanche 4, Calgary Flames 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 314 | 012 | 15 | 431 |
| CGY | 012 | 010 | 113 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:17COLMikko RantanenAssists: J.T. Compher, Devon Toews · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 11:01COLArtturi LehkonenGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–0
- P1 12:58COLArtturi LehkonenPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Snap, 0.14 xG3–0
- P3 2:27CGYTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 19:02COLMikko RantanenENAssists: J.T. Compher, Devon Toews · Other, 0.78 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:50CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Interference2 min
- P1 12:03CGYMichael Stone: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 14:12COLAndrew Cogliano: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:02CGYMichael Stone: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:46COLLogan O'Connor: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:02CGYNazem Kadri: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCompher – Nichushkin – Rantanen8:36
xG 0.30–0.07 (81%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rodrigues11:31
xG 0.74–0.77 (49%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Cogliano – O'Connor – Newhook6:31
xG 0.03–0.15 (16%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Toews5:58
xG 0.18–0.10 (64%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Johnson – Hunt3:39
xG 0.18–0.11 (61%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Hunt – Toews3:11
xG 0.40–0.35 (54%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Huberdeau – Lindholm2:58
xG 0.32–0.02 (94%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Kadri – Coleman – Mangiapane4:12
xG 0.41–0.17 (70%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Lucic – Kadri – Huberdeau8:30
xG 0.44–0.24 (65%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Lewis – Backlund – Dube3:04
xG 0.21–0.02 (91%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson15:04
xG 1.32–0.81 (62%)attempts 19–15goals 0–0
- Tanev – Weegar14:52
xG 0.76–0.53 (59%)attempts 18–16goals 0–2
- Stone – Zadorov12:13
xG 0.38–0.24 (61%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).