Wed, Jan 18, 2023·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Dallas Stars 3, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 110 | 210 | 016 | 336 |
| SJS | 06 | 312 | 210 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:43DALTy DellandreaAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 3:54DALJason RobertsonAssists: Colin Miller, Miro Heiskanen · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 6:57DALRadek FaksaAssists: Fredrik Olofsson, Nils Lundkvist · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–0
- P2 9:41SJSSteven LorentzAssists: Noah Gregor · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 11:49SJSNick BoninoAssists: Alexander Barabanov, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P2 15:18SJSTimo MeierPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 10:41SJSErik KarlssonGWGAssists: Nick Bonino, Nico Sturm · Snap, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 19:24SJSLogan CoutureENAssists: Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.60 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:47SJSMario Ferraro: Holding2 min
- P1 19:19SJSJaycob Megna: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:17DALJason Robertson: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:16DALMiro Heiskanen: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:43DALJamie Benn: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:44SJSMichael Eyssimont: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFaksa – Olofsson – Kiviranta4:59
xG 0.37–0.24 (61%)attempts 11–3goals 1–1
- Glendening – Gurianov – Marchment5:03
xG 0.15–0.06 (72%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Faksa – Marchment – Kiviranta2:28
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Seguin – Robertson10:55
xG 0.18–0.58 (23%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Heiskanen13:32
xG 0.88–0.38 (70%)attempts 19–7goals 3–0
- Suter – Heiskanen2:53
xG 0.06–0.17 (25%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Suter – Lundkvist12:19
xG 0.40–0.55 (42%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Meier – Eyssimont11:17
xG 1.01–0.35 (75%)attempts 15–8goals 0–2
- Couture – Nieto – Barabanov7:57
xG 0.54–0.05 (92%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Bonino – Gregor – Sturm8:43
xG 0.32–0.31 (50%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Lindblom – Lorentz – Gadjovich6:54
xG 0.20–0.32 (38%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Megna14:11
xG 0.80–0.34 (70%)attempts 18–8goals 1–1
- Vlasic – Benning11:14
xG 0.53–0.34 (61%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Benning – Ferraro2:37
xG 0.24–0.09 (73%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).