Thu, Jan 19, 2023·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Minnesota Wild 2, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 06 | 115 | 110 | 231 |
| CAR | 011 | 37 | 211 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:11MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–0
- P2 9:07CARBrent BurnsAssists: Andrei Svechnikov · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 13:33CARBrady SkjeiPPAssists: Martin Necas, Stefan Noesen · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 17:22CARTeuvo TeravainenSHGWGAssists: Jalen Chatfield, Jesper Fast · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 2:13CARJalen ChatfieldAssists: Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–4
- P3 5:27CARMartin NecasPPAssists: Seth Jarvis, Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–5
- P3 7:21MINMatt BoldyAssists: Ryan Hartman, Jonas Brodin · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:39MINKirill Kaprizov: Boarding2 min
- P1 7:16MINBrandon Duhaime: Interference2 min
- P1 16:04MINMatt Boldy: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 16:04MINRyan Hartman: Misconduct10 min
- P2 6:15CARJesper Fast: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:49MINFrederick Gaudreau: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:03CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:13MINMats Zuccarello: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 3:40MINBrandon Duhaime: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 8:18CARBrady Skjei: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:33CARAndrei Svechnikov: Cross checking5 min
- P3 11:33CARAndrei Svechnikov: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 17:42MINKirill Kaprizov: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Steel won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek6:37
xG 1.01–0.12 (89%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Reaves – Duhaime – Dewar4:54
xG 0.01–0.00 (69%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Hartman – Gaudreau – Boldy3:48
xG 0.17–0.23 (42%)attempts 3–6goals 1–2
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Boldy2:15
xG 0.17–0.28 (38%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Middleton10:09
xG 0.68–0.35 (66%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Merrill – Addison7:33
xG 0.24–0.25 (49%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Brodin13:32
xG 0.38–0.46 (46%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Aho – Jarvis7:50
xG 0.67–0.10 (88%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Stastny – Necas – Svechnikov6:13
xG 0.23–0.13 (64%)attempts 7–4goals 2–1
- Noesen – Teravainen – Kotkaniemi5:35
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook10:23
xG 0.53–1.06 (34%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce3:41
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- de Haan – Chatfield10:45
xG 0.24–0.05 (84%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Burns – Slavin9:12
xG 0.42–0.53 (44%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).