Thu, Jan 19, 2023·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Nashville Predators 2, St. Louis Blues 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 012 | 17 | 17 | 226 |
| STL | 010 | 315 | 28 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:11STLBrayden SchennAssists: Justin Faulk, Niko Mikkola · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 2:36NSHColton SissonsAssists: Cole Smith · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 8:30STLBrandon SaadAssists: Tyler Pitlick, Tyler Tucker · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 15:34STLJordan KyrouPPGWGAssists: Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–3
- P3 1:03STLRobert ThomasAssists: Brandon Saad, Calle Rosen · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 2:01STLAlexey ToropchenkoAssists: Tyler Pitlick, Nathan Walker · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–5
- P3 17:52NSHMattias EkholmAssists: Alexandre Carrier, Tommy Novak · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:38STLPavel Buchnevich: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:58NSHJuuso Parssinen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 14:31NSHMikael Granlund: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 3:31STLBrayden Schenn: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:14NSHNino Niederreiter: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:43STLTyler Tucker: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:43NSHCole Smith: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:36NSHDante Fabbro: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 10:44STLJustin Faulk: Interference2 min
- P3 16:16STLColton Parayko: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:20NSHFilip Forsberg: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSissons – Parssinen – Smith5:38
xG 0.45–0.16 (73%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Novak – Trenin – Jeannot8:57
xG 0.47–0.52 (47%)attempts 6–9goals 0–2
- Johansen – Granlund – Niederreiter7:43
xG 0.46–0.60 (43%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Duchene – Forsberg – Glass9:42
xG 0.26–0.44 (37%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Fabbro2:48
xG 0.19–0.02 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Josi15:41
xG 0.96–1.03 (48%)attempts 14–17goals 1–2
- Lauzon – Fabbro12:00
xG 0.42–0.60 (41%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSaad – Kyrou – Thomas10:08
xG 0.90–0.40 (69%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Pitlick – Walker – Toropchenko8:30
xG 0.45–0.27 (62%)attempts 8–3goals 1–1
- Schenn – Buchnevich – Neighbours8:51
xG 0.29–0.12 (70%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Leivo – Barbashev – Acciari7:50
xG 0.23–0.37 (39%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Parayko13:38
xG 1.07–0.65 (62%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
- Parayko – Rosen2:16
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Faulk – Mikkola11:05
xG 0.63–0.50 (55%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).