Thu, Jan 19, 2023·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
New Jersey Devils 3, Seattle Kraken 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 010 | 112 | 28 | 00 | 330 |
| SEA | 115 | 114 | 110 | 11 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:27SEARyan DonatoAssists: Will Borgen · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 4:52SEARyan DonatoAssists: Jared McCann, Cale Fleury · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 11:32NJDDamon SeversonAssists: Jesper Bratt, Brendan Smith · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 6:04NJDErik HaulaSHAssists: Dawson Mercer · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 7:51SEABrandon TanevAssists: Ryan Donato, Yanni Gourde · Snap, 0.26 xG2–3
- P3 18:46NJDNico HischierAssists: Jack Hughes, Ondrej Palat · Snap, 0.39 xG3–3
- OT 1:10SEAAndre BurakovskyGWGAssists: Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:10NJDNathan Bastian: Kneeing2 min
- P1 8:10SEACarson Soucy: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:08SEAWill Borgen: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:08NJDErik Haula: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:15SEADaniel Sprong: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:08NJDBrendan Smith: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Haula – Hughes3:03
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Tatar – Sharangovich – Hughes7:00
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Tatar – Boqvist – Sharangovich2:04
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Boqvist – Sharangovich – Mercer2:04
xG 0.04–0.04 (55%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Graves – Okhotiuk2:52
xG 0.07–0.08 (48%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Severson – Graves6:20
xG 0.34–0.40 (46%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Smith – Okhotiuk2:33
xG 0.01–0.09 (12%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Burakovsky – Beniers10:00
xG 1.43–0.76 (65%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Wennberg – McCann – Donato8:01
xG 0.33–0.13 (72%)attempts 13–4goals 2–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen12:08
xG 0.35–0.29 (54%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Sprong – Tanev – Geekie6:18
xG 0.33–0.37 (48%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSoucy – Fleury11:05
xG 1.10–0.55 (67%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
- Larsson – Dunn18:06
xG 1.53–1.07 (59%)attempts 28–20goals 1–1
- Oleksiak – Borgen14:09
xG 0.33–0.20 (63%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).