Sat, Jan 21, 2023·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 010 | 011 | 24 | 225 |
| DET | 011 | 07 | 113 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 9:01PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Kevin Hayes, Wade Allison · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–0
- P3 13:23PHINoah CatesGWGAssists: Travis Konecny · Snap, 0.16 xG2–0
- P3 19:17DETLucas RaymondAssists: Dominik Kubalik, Moritz Seider · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:44PHIRasmus Ristolainen: Interference2 min
- P1 19:23DETDavid Perron: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 19:23PHITravis Konecny: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 13:11DETDavid Perron: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:11DETMichael Rasmussen: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:11PHITravis Sanheim: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:48PHITravis Sanheim: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestKonecny – Cates – Farabee11:14
xG 0.38–0.13 (75%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Brown – MacEwen8:35
xG 0.22–0.05 (80%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Tippett – Frost9:22
xG 0.25–0.38 (40%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Hayes – Laughton – Allison9:56
xG 0.18–0.61 (23%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – DeAngelo12:31
xG 0.38–0.30 (55%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Provorov – York15:20
xG 0.39–0.37 (51%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Seeler – Ristolainen11:57
xG 0.21–0.42 (34%)attempts 7–16goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestErne – Fabbri – Suter8:19
xG 0.24–0.08 (74%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Veleno – Berggren7:49
xG 0.18–0.16 (53%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Perron – Copp – Rasmussen9:59
xG 0.25–0.39 (39%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Larkin – Raymond9:33
xG 0.30–0.50 (38%)attempts 6–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Walman2:07
xG 0.26–0.02 (93%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Hronek15:57
xG 0.59–0.49 (55%)attempts 14–18goals 0–1
- Walman – Seider12:01
xG 0.10–0.22 (31%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).