Sat, Jan 21, 2023·Centre Bell, Montreal
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Montréal Canadiens 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 215 | 08 | 014 | 01 | 238 |
| MTL | 04 | 218 | 06 | 13 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:53TORMark GiordanoAssists: William Nylander, Auston Matthews · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 17:30TORCalle JarnkrokAssists: Conor Timmins, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 1:46MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Nick Suzuki, Rem Pitlick · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 13:35MTLRafael Harvey-PinardAssists: Michael Pezzetta, Alex Belzile · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
- OT 2:14MTLRem PitlickGWGAssists: Mike Hoffman, David Savard · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:26TORZachary Aston-Reese: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:43MTLEvgenii Dadonov: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:47TORRasmus Sandin: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 18:39TORMark Giordano: Interference2 min
- P3 10:14MTLKirby Dach: Holding2 min
- P3 16:53MTLMike Matheson: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:53TORCalle Jarnkrok: Interference2 min
- P3 17:53TORWilliam Nylander: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestEngvall – Kampf – McMann8:27
xG 1.24–0.45 (73%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Tavares – Jarnkrok – Marner9:04
xG 0.58–0.17 (77%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Kerfoot – Aston-Reese6:32
xG 0.34–0.04 (90%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Nylander – Bunting – Matthews11:12
xG 1.00–1.01 (50%)attempts 22–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Liljegren12:52
xG 0.67–0.23 (75%)attempts 18–3goals 0–0
- Timmins – Sandin11:26
xG 1.08–0.76 (59%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
- Giordano – Holl15:07
xG 1.00–0.85 (54%)attempts 15–15goals 1–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestBelzile – Pezzetta – Harvey-Pinard8:09
xG 0.81–0.43 (65%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Anderson – Pitlick – Suzuki10:08
xG 0.47–0.96 (33%)attempts 8–17goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Dvorak – Dach2:32
xG 0.21–0.72 (23%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Ylonen – Dach9:38
xG 0.10–0.75 (12%)attempts 2–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Edmundson2:26
xG 0.34–0.18 (65%)attempts 5–2goals 1–1
- Kovacevic – Harris4:30
xG 0.24–0.09 (73%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Harris – Xhekaj2:46
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).