Sat, Jan 21, 2023·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Winnipeg Jets 5, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 19 | 28 | 213 | 530 |
| OTT | 18 | 013 | 05 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:58WPGNikolaj EhlersPPAssists: Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele · Snap, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 11:12OTTJosh NorrisAssists: Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 5:00WPGMark ScheifeleGWGAssists: Kyle Connor, Nate Schmidt · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 13:09WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Neal Pionk · Deflected, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 16:07WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Axel Jonsson-Fjallby, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–1
- P3 18:17WPGCole PerfettiPPAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–1
Penalties (19)
- P1 6:30OTTMark Kastelic: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:47OTTErik Brannstrom: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:01OTTTim Stützle: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:08WPGKevin Stenlund: Interference2 min
- P2 8:18OTTDrake Batherson: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:18WPGJosh Morrissey: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:59OTTJosh Norris: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:42WPGNeal Pionk: Interference2 min
- P3 10:21OTTTim Stützle: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:06WPGMark Scheifele: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:07OTTMark Kastelic: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 17:07WPGAdam Lowry: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:07OTTAlex DeBrincat: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:07OTTAustin Watson: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:07OTTAustin Watson: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:07WPGMorgan Barron: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:26OTTBrady Tkachuk: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:26OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00OTTMathieu Joseph: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestConnor – Dubois – Perfetti9:45
xG 0.79–0.07 (91%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers7:06
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Stenlund – Barron – Kuhlman2:42
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Maenalanen – Stenlund – Jonsson-Fjallby4:48
xG 0.04–0.05 (43%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Samberg10:21
xG 0.81–0.00 (100%)attempts 15–5goals 2–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey12:37
xG 0.54–0.70 (43%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Dillon – Pionk10:12
xG 0.31–0.55 (36%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestWatson – Gambrell – Kastelic2:55
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Batherson – Tkachuk – Stützle10:07
xG 0.52–0.19 (73%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Joseph – Kelly – Pinto5:26
xG 0.02–0.14 (12%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Giroux – DeBrincat – Norris9:06
xG 0.31–0.48 (39%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Brannstrom7:11
xG 0.63–0.20 (76%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Sanderson9:53
xG 0.47–0.23 (67%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Chabot – Bernard-Docker14:27
xG 0.13–0.90 (13%)attempts 9–21goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).