Sat, Jan 21, 2023·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Chicago Blackhawks 5, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 23 | 28 | 17 | 518 |
| STL | 011 | 211 | 110 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:27CHIJason DickinsonAssists: Sam Lafferty, Seth Jones · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 13:20CHISam LaffertySHAssists: Jason Dickinson · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 2:00CHIReese JohnsonAssists: Colin Blackwell, MacKenzie Entwistle · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–0
- P2 2:54STLJordan KyrouPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 3:59CHIAndreas AthanasiouGWGAssists: Jason Dickinson, Isaak Phillips · Snap, 0.08 xG4–1
- P2 13:12STLIvan BarbashevAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas · Backhand, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 9:15STLNick LeddyAssists: Colton Parayko, Ivan Barbashev · Slap, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 16:01CHIMax DomiAssists: Tyler Johnson, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:31CHIMacKenzie Entwistle: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:29CHIJake McCabe: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:24STLRobert Thomas: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:47CHIJake McCabe: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:43STLIvan Barbashev: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:43CHIIsaak Phillips: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:22CHIConnor Murphy: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:00STLPavel Buchnevich: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 0:00STLPavel Buchnevich: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00CHISam Lafferty: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against Domi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestAthanasiou – Dickinson – Lafferty10:29
xG 0.34–0.10 (77%)attempts 8–5goals 2–0
- Kane – Johnson – Domi12:02
xG 0.44–0.60 (42%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
- Blackwell – Entwistle – Johnson7:52
xG 0.16–0.40 (28%)attempts 5–9goals 1–1
- Toews – Raddysh – Kurashev9:18
xG 0.10–0.39 (20%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Johnson – Jones2:07
xG 0.07–0.03 (70%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Murphy – Jones2:19
xG 0.01–0.09 (13%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Jones – Phillips11:04
xG 0.30–0.42 (41%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Buchnevich – Neighbours10:45
xG 0.64–0.12 (84%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Leivo – Barbashev – Acciari6:32
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- Saad – Kyrou – Thomas10:58
xG 0.29–0.13 (68%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Acciari – Toropchenko2:31
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Mikkola12:28
xG 0.66–0.11 (85%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Leddy – Parayko11:18
xG 0.55–0.20 (73%)attempts 12–5goals 2–1
- Parayko – Rosen3:27
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).