Sat, Jan 21, 2023·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Los Angeles Kings 3, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 112 | 212 | 010 | 334 |
| NSH | 29 | 08 | 311 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:19NSHMikael GranlundAssists: Alexandre Carrier, Ryan Johansen · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 0:39NSHMatt DucheneAssists: Cody Glass, Roman Josi · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 9:26LAKSean DurziAssists: Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–2
- P2 6:14LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty · Deflected, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 17:04LAKQuinton ByfieldPPAssists: Phillip Danault, Sean Durzi · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 8:44NSHRyan JohansenPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Roman Josi · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 13:34NSHMatt DucheneGWGAssists: Alexandre Carrier, Cody Glass · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 16:10NSHCole SmithAssists: Roman Josi, Juuso Parssinen · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:07LAKBrendan Lemieux: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:07NSHTanner Jeannot: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:09LAKSean Durzi: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:09NSHCody Glass: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:13NSHTanner Jeannot: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:32NSHRoman Josi: Holding2 min
- P2 16:42NSHDante Fabbro: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:44LAKAlexander Edler: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 18:25NSHMikael Granlund: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Kempe – Byfield12:35
xG 0.67–0.30 (69%)attempts 10–10goals 2–1
- Fiala – Anderson-Dolan – Lizotte7:33
xG 0.34–0.52 (40%)attempts 9–9goals 0–2
- Lemieux – Kupari – Fagemo3:40
xG 0.03–0.38 (8%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Danault – Arvidsson – Iafallo11:52
xG 0.27–0.72 (28%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Anderson17:49
xG 0.80–0.53 (60%)attempts 13–23goals 1–1
- Edler – Walker12:21
xG 0.36–0.55 (40%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Roy – Durzi15:01
xG 0.67–0.88 (43%)attempts 16–11goals 1–3
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Forsberg – Glass12:31
xG 0.87–0.38 (70%)attempts 16–14goals 2–0
- Sissons – Parssinen – Smith5:46
xG 0.33–0.09 (79%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Johansen – Granlund – Niederreiter10:26
xG 0.56–0.62 (48%)attempts 13–7goals 1–2
- Novak – Trenin – Jeannot5:53
xG 0.05–0.19 (23%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Josi17:07
xG 1.02–0.68 (60%)attempts 17–18goals 2–0
- Ekholm – Carrier14:53
xG 0.74–0.59 (56%)attempts 16–14goals 2–1
- Josi – Fabbro2:21
xG 0.04–0.06 (37%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).