Sat, Jan 21, 2023·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Colorado Avalanche 2, Seattle Kraken 1 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 011 | 19 | 06 | 01 | 1 | 227 |
| SEA | 013 | 19 | 05 | 00 | 0 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:18COLAlex NewhookAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Jacob MacDonald · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 9:26SEARyan DonatoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. SEA Jordan Eberle stopped
- 2. COL Nathan MacKinnon scored
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:27COLMikko Rantanen: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:01SEAEeli Tolvanen: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:27SEAYanni Gourde: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 18:10COLEvan Rodrigues: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCompher – Nichushkin – Rantanen4:56
xG 0.64–0.24 (73%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Compher – Rantanen – Newhook2:56
xG 0.19–0.01 (94%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Rantanen – Rodrigues2:01
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Rodrigues – O'Connor2:21
xG 0.03–0.09 (23%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Johnson – Hunt2:54
xG 0.25–0.21 (55%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Toews11:57
xG 0.21–0.21 (50%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Englund – Toews2:45
xG 0.05–0.12 (32%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen11:21
xG 0.59–0.24 (71%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Hayden – Tanev – Geekie7:42
xG 0.35–0.23 (61%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Wennberg – McCann – Donato10:00
xG 0.06–0.17 (27%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Eberle – Sprong – Beniers10:42
xG 0.47–0.86 (36%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Borgen15:09
xG 0.99–0.39 (72%)attempts 29–12goals 0–0
- Soucy – Fleury10:01
xG 0.44–0.44 (50%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Larsson – Dunn19:56
xG 0.46–0.81 (36%)attempts 13–23goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).