Sat, Jan 21, 2023·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Edmonton Oilers 4, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 210 | 19 | 110 | 429 |
| VAN | 010 | 17 | 112 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:26EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 8:31EDMZach HymanPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–0
- P2 9:26EDMLeon DraisaitlGWGAssists: Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–0
- P2 16:46VANAndrei KuzmenkoAssists: Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 3:26VANJ.T. MillerAssists: Quinn Hughes, Conor Garland · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 19:25EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsENAssists: Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.77 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:41VANLane Pederson: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 12:57VANLane Pederson: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:57EDMDylan Holloway: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:47EDMDerek Ryan: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 12:00EDMWarren Foegele: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pettersson won the faceoff against McLeod
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid11:54
xG 1.01–0.21 (83%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Kane – Draisaitl – Ryan6:59
xG 0.35–0.02 (96%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Kane – Draisaitl – Puljujarvi2:27
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- McDavid – Puljujarvi – Kostin2:42
xG 0.21–0.21 (51%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Kulak10:35
xG 1.06–0.34 (76%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Ceci – Nurse12:23
xG 0.82–0.46 (64%)attempts 10–11goals 2–1
- Kulak – Desharnais3:44
xG 0.14–0.07 (66%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPettersson – Mikheyev – Kuzmenko11:34
xG 0.83–0.46 (64%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Boeser – Pederson – Studnicka9:18
xG 0.48–0.35 (58%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Lazar – Joshua – Lockwood10:37
xG 0.33–0.51 (39%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Miller – Horvat – Garland11:24
xG 0.17–0.59 (22%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Myers – Stillman2:11
xG 0.03–0.03 (55%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Dermott – Stillman9:56
xG 0.37–0.54 (41%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Schenn – Hughes14:20
xG 0.45–0.67 (40%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).