Sat, Jan 21, 2023·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Washington Capitals 2, Vegas Golden Knights 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 06 | 18 | 18 | 222 |
| VGK | 210 | 311 | 16 | 627 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:17VGKAlec MartinezAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 7:36VGKNicolas RoyAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Alec Martinez · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 2:15VGKMichael AmadioGWGAssists: Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
- P2 12:04VGKByron FroeseAssists: Jonas Rondbjerg, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–4
- P2 13:38VGKPaul CotterAssists: Nicolas Roy · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–5
- P2 18:20WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Dylan Strome · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–5
- P3 3:59VGKPaul CotterAssists: Keegan Kolesar, Nicolas Roy · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–6
- P3 10:41WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:46WSHAnthony Mantha: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:25VGKPhil Kessel: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 18:44VGKKeegan Kolesar: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:42WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:42VGKNicolas Hague: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:09VGKBrayden McNabb: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Sheary – Strome8:52
xG 0.27–0.15 (64%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Eller – Mantha – Aube-Kubel7:47
xG 0.33–0.28 (54%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Oshie – Eller – Sheary3:19
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Mantha – Aube-Kubel – Strome4:08
xG 0.04–0.21 (15%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Fehérváry6:28
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Gustafsson – van Riemsdyk12:05
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Orlov – Alexeyev7:30
xG 0.20–0.18 (53%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKolesar – Roy – Cotter9:19
xG 0.72–0.28 (72%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
- Stephenson – Amadio – Eichel13:16
xG 0.60–0.17 (78%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:25
xG 0.47–0.34 (58%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Kessel – Froese – Rondbjerg8:33
xG 0.07–0.14 (34%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Pietrangelo14:26
xG 0.67–0.29 (70%)attempts 14–12goals 5–0
- McNabb – Korczak15:32
xG 0.69–0.34 (67%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Hutton – Hague15:19
xG 0.59–0.35 (63%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).