Sun, Jan 22, 2023·TD Garden, Boston
San Jose Sharks 0, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 05 | 05 | 08 | 018 |
| BOS | 17 | 29 | 16 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:16BOSHampus LindholmGWGAssists: Brad Marchand, Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 4:08BOSCharlie McAvoyAssists: David Pastrnak, Matt Grzelcyk · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 7:46BOSNick FolignoAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Joona Koppanen · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–3
- P3 2:40BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.09 xG0–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:27BOSBrandon Carlo: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:27SJSTimo Meier: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:36BOSJoona Koppanen: Holding2 min
- P2 3:42BOSBrad Marchand: Holding2 min
- P2 3:42SJSMichael Eyssimont: Interference2 min
- P2 7:59SJSMichael Eyssimont: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:37SJSMichael Eyssimont: Interference2 min
- P2 15:37BOSNick Foligno: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 1:25SJSMario Ferraro: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:25SJSTimo Meier: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Meier – Eyssimont6:22
xG 0.57–0.06 (90%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Couture – Nieto – Barabanov8:41
xG 0.22–0.06 (79%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Hertl – Meier – Gregor2:50
xG 0.03–0.08 (24%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Bonino – Gregor – Sturm5:49
xG 0.11–0.43 (20%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Ferraro3:36
xG 0.29–0.03 (91%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Megna12:50
xG 0.30–0.33 (47%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Ferraro8:10
xG 0.17–0.23 (42%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Hall – Frederic9:51
xG 0.60–0.28 (68%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Foligno – Greer – Koppanen8:36
xG 0.48–0.26 (64%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Krejci – Pastrnak – Zacha8:17
xG 0.08–0.15 (36%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith9:32
xG 0.19–0.30 (39%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – Clifton10:00
xG 0.59–0.27 (69%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Clifton4:51
xG 0.37–0.17 (68%)attempts 10–4goals 2–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy9:36
xG 0.26–0.20 (56%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).