Mon, Jan 23, 2023·Madison Square Garden, New York
Florida Panthers 2, New York Rangers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 18 | 014 | 113 | 235 |
| NYR | 26 | 17 | 313 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:03NYRAdam FoxAssists: Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 5:56FLACarter VerhaeghePPAssists: Anton Lundell, Eetu Luostarinen · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 17:21NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox · Slap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 15:03NYRJimmy VeseyGWGAssists: Barclay Goodrow, Vincent Trocheck · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 7:56NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Filip Chytil · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–4
- P3 8:10NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox · Snap, 0.09 xG1–5
- P3 11:02FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–5
- P3 16:49NYRFilip ChytilENAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Alexis Lafrenière · Wrist, 0.79 xG2–6
Penalties (3)
- P1 4:24NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 15:53FLANick Cousins: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:10NYRBen Harpur: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBarkov – Reinhart – Lundell11:16
xG 0.59–0.27 (69%)attempts 12–6goals 0–2
- Cousins – Luostarinen – Denisenko7:07
xG 0.29–0.03 (90%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Tierney – Verhaeghe – Tkachuk2:04
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Tierney – Lomberg – Smith4:39
xG 0.14–0.08 (64%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Mahura12:25
xG 0.75–0.34 (69%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Ekblad – Forsling15:38
xG 0.74–0.37 (67%)attempts 20–9goals 0–1
- Staal – Montour10:19
xG 0.83–0.78 (52%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Goodrow – Vesey11:34
xG 0.77–0.57 (57%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Chytil – Kakko – Lafrenière12:57
xG 0.70–0.57 (55%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Panarin12:04
xG 0.51–0.62 (45%)attempts 8–13goals 2–0
- Gauthier – Leschyshyn – Kravtsov6:49
xG 0.00–0.33 (0%)attempts 0–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Miller16:56
xG 1.23–0.71 (63%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Fox – Lindgren16:27
xG 0.96–0.67 (59%)attempts 17–13goals 4–0
- Harpur – Schneider12:35
xG 0.04–0.78 (5%)attempts 6–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).