Mon, Jan 23, 2023·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Calgary Flames 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 07 | 29 | 18 | 01 | 325 |
| CGY | 117 | 215 | 013 | 14 | 449 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:18CGYWalker DuehrAssists: MacKenzie Weegar · Slap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 1:32CGYNazem KadriAssists: Nikita Zadorov, Andrew Mangiapane · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 9:04CBJKirill MarchenkoPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Patrik Laine · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 9:53CBJPatrik LainePPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Adam Boqvist · Slap, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 16:17CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Mikael Backlund, Blake Coleman · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 4:34CBJBoone JennerAssists: Patrik Laine, Erik Gudbranson · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- OT 2:25CGYDillon DubeGWGAssists: Andrew Mangiapane · Snap, 0.23 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:14CGYChris Tanev: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P1 16:30CGYTrevor Lewis: Holding2 min
- P2 8:17CGYDillon Dube: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:13CGYNazem Kadri: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 11:07CBJMathieu Olivier: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:07CGYMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:09CBJSean Kuraly: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:59CBJBoone Jenner: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 16:59CGYMikael Backlund: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:43CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Interference2 min
- P3 13:38CBJPatrik Laine: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roslovic won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Jenner – Laine9:39
xG 0.73–0.38 (66%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Nyquist – Jenner – Johnson4:21
xG 0.13–0.06 (69%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Robinson – Marchenko6:21
xG 0.34–0.28 (54%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Bemstrom – Marchenko – Sillinger2:12
xG 0.05–0.10 (34%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Boqvist – Blankenburg4:42
xG 0.26–0.25 (51%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Boqvist5:51
xG 0.16–0.38 (30%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Gudbranson – Blankenburg2:56
xG 0.07–0.32 (18%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Mangiapane11:27
xG 1.21–0.20 (86%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Lucic – Kadri – Huberdeau11:11
xG 0.43–0.13 (77%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Lewis – Pelletier – Duehr5:17
xG 0.42–0.21 (66%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Lindholm – Dube9:28
xG 0.54–0.54 (50%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson13:03
xG 0.84–0.24 (78%)attempts 20–6goals 0–0
- Weegar – Zadorov11:06
xG 0.78–0.23 (77%)attempts 12–6goals 2–0
- Stone – Zadorov8:12
xG 0.49–0.08 (86%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).