Tue, Jan 24, 2023·Centre Bell, Montreal
Boston Bruins 4, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 011 | 112 | 36 | 429 |
| MTL | 07 | 17 | 18 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:11MTLKirby DachPPAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Mike Hoffman · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 14:12BOSTaylor HallPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
- P3 9:45BOSDavid KrejciAssists: David Pastrnak, Pavel Zacha · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 11:31MTLKirby DachAssists: Alex Belzile, Justin Barron · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 17:05BOSPatrice BergeronGWGAssists: Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 19:11BOSDavid PastrnakENAssists: David Krejci · Wrist, 0.59 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:53BOSBrad Marchand: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:24MTLJosh Anderson: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:40BOSDerek Forbort: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P2 8:40BOSDerek Forbort: Interference2 min
- P2 8:40MTLMichael Pezzetta: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 13:50MTLMike Hoffman: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:18BOSCharlie McAvoy: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:25MTLMike Matheson: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith6:23
xG 0.53–0.13 (80%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak3:27
xG 0.34–0.11 (75%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Coyle – Hall – Frederic7:37
xG 0.23–0.05 (82%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Foligno – Greer – Koppanen4:45
xG 0.07–0.03 (73%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – Clifton10:20
xG 0.36–0.07 (83%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Clifton3:29
xG 0.33–0.06 (86%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Clifton2:05
xG 0.33–0.07 (83%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestBelzile – Pezzetta – Harvey-Pinard5:30
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Belzile – Dach2:32
xG 0.12–0.02 (87%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Hoffman – Dach2:20
xG 0.03–0.09 (23%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Ylonen – Dach7:46
xG 0.21–0.30 (41%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Kovacevic – Xhekaj3:06
xG 0.06–0.02 (75%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Barron13:37
xG 0.36–0.39 (48%)attempts 13–16goals 1–1
- Harris – Xhekaj5:24
xG 0.02–0.15 (13%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).