Tue, Jan 24, 2023·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Los Angeles Kings 4, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 214 | 111 | 010 | 13 | 438 |
| PHI | 214 | 17 | 09 | 01 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:50PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Owen Tippett, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 9:21LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Kevin Fiala, Drew Doughty · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 10:27PHIWade AllisonAssists: Kevin Hayes, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–2
- P1 11:40LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Adrian Kempe, Quinton Byfield · Snap, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 10:37PHIRasmus RistolainenAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Morgan Frost · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 18:36LAKSamuel FagemoAssists: Blake Lizotte · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- OT 1:09LAKKevin FialaGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:31LAKPhillip Danault: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 9:17PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:32PHITravis Sanheim: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:14LAKAdrian Kempe: Holding2 min
- P2 1:45PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:51PHINicolas Deslauriers: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:43PHIRasmus Ristolainen: Boarding2 min
- P2 19:20LAKQuinton Byfield: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00LAKMikey Anderson: Roughing2 min
- OT 1:09PHITony DeAngelo: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- OT 1:09PHITony DeAngelo: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Kempe – Byfield9:58
xG 0.83–0.05 (95%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Danault – Arvidsson – Iafallo12:06
xG 0.29–0.40 (42%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Kupari – Fagemo – Turcotte5:12
xG 0.10–0.25 (28%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Fiala – Anderson-Dolan – Lizotte11:05
xG 0.62–0.86 (42%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Walker10:43
xG 0.63–0.27 (70%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Roy – Walker2:15
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Doughty – Anderson16:40
xG 0.52–0.56 (48%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Laughton – Allison8:13
xG 1.08–0.54 (67%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Tippett – Frost7:15
xG 0.29–0.37 (44%)attempts 3–8goals 2–1
- Deslauriers – Brown – MacEwen5:46
xG 0.10–0.36 (22%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Konecny – Cates – Farabee10:00
xG 0.06–0.38 (14%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestProvorov – York15:14
xG 0.79–0.40 (66%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- DeAngelo – Provorov2:07
xG 0.18–0.13 (59%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Seeler – Ristolainen10:17
xG 0.23–0.55 (29%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).