Tue, Jan 24, 2023·Prudential Center, Newark
Vegas Golden Knights 2, New Jersey Devils 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 010 | 210 | 010 | 00 | 230 |
| NJD | 115 | 09 | 18 | 14 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:58NJDOndrej PalatAssists: Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt · Snap, 0.27 xG0–1
- P2 12:00VGKBen HuttonAssists: Nicolas Hague, Chandler Stephenson · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 14:51VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–1
- P3 18:50NJDDougie HamiltonAssists: Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- OT 3:54NJDDougie HamiltonPPGWGAssists: Jack Hughes, Vitek Vanecek · Snap, 0.15 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P2 3:10NJDNathan Bastian: Boarding2 min
- P2 3:10NJDNathan Bastian: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:10VGKBrett Howden: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:23NJDOndrej Palat: Boarding2 min
- P3 10:26NJDBrendan Smith: Hooking2 min
- OT 2:41VGKBen Hutton: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestEichel – Roy – Cotter6:43
xG 0.39–0.09 (81%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Kessel – Stephenson – Amadio6:17
xG 0.42–0.25 (63%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Kessel – Roy – Cotter4:45
xG 0.13–0.06 (68%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Stephenson – Amadio – Eichel4:58
xG 0.11–0.17 (39%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Hague2:24
xG 0.14–0.09 (62%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – McNabb2:50
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Martinez – Pietrangelo13:15
xG 0.51–0.52 (50%)attempts 14–19goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestBoqvist – Sharangovich – Mercer2:56
xG 0.14–0.06 (69%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Wood – Bastian – Sharangovich3:34
xG 0.12–0.04 (74%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Wood – Bastian – McLeod2:30
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Palat – Bratt – Hischier12:06
xG 0.72–0.71 (50%)attempts 21–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Severson5:10
xG 0.59–0.14 (81%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Severson – Graves15:29
xG 0.97–0.59 (62%)attempts 20–18goals 0–1
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler13:30
xG 0.35–0.37 (49%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).