Tue, Jan 24, 2023·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Winnipeg Jets 1, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 115 | 05 | 013 | 133 |
| NSH | 013 | 118 | 110 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:48WPGPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Cole Perfetti, Dylan DeMelo · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 13:49NSHCody GlassAssists: Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 5:38NSHTanner JeannotGWGAssists: Tommy Novak · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:15WPGLogan Stanley: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:15NSHAlexandre Carrier: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:16NSHMattias Ekholm: Delaying game2 min
- P2 15:41WPGBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:03NSHJeremy Lauzon: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:40WPGKyle Connor: Holding2 min
- P3 19:54NSHYakov Trenin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:00WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00NSHJeremy Lauzon: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestConnor – Dubois – Perfetti13:14
xG 0.78–0.33 (70%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Lowry – Barron – Kuhlman9:40
xG 0.81–0.99 (45%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers10:46
xG 0.45–0.89 (34%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Maenalanen – Stenlund – Jonsson-Fjallby6:22
xG 0.30–0.96 (24%)attempts 6–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey14:06
xG 1.13–0.69 (62%)attempts 22–13goals 1–1
- Dillon – Schmidt3:13
xG 0.17–0.07 (71%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Morrissey3:05
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Forsberg – Glass11:37
xG 1.25–0.27 (82%)attempts 17–5goals 1–1
- Novak – Trenin – Jeannot7:20
xG 1.18–0.42 (74%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Johansen – Granlund – Niederreiter12:30
xG 0.64–0.73 (47%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Sissons – Parssinen – Smith7:24
xG 0.15–0.42 (27%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ekholm7:02
xG 1.13–0.44 (72%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Josi – Fabbro2:54
xG 0.50–0.11 (83%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Fabbro2:52
xG 0.74–0.35 (68%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).