Wed, Jan 25, 2023·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New York Islanders 1, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 010 | 112 | 014 | 136 |
| OTT | 114 | 117 | 07 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:48OTTShane PintoAssists: Claude Giroux, Jake Sanderson · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 3:28OTTClaude GirouxPPGWGAssists: Ridly Greig, Jake Sanderson · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 16:07NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:09OTTParker Kelly: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 13:38NYIAdam Pelech: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:09OTTAustin Watson: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:58NYIScott Mayfield: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 9:09OTTTravis Hamonic: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:07OTTAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:07NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:37NYIKyle Palmieri: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBarzal – Beauvillier – Räty2:27
xG 0.15–0.00 (99%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Martin – Holmstrom – Räty3:08
xG 0.17–0.07 (69%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Lee – Nelson10:37
xG 0.76–0.72 (51%)attempts 17–16goals 1–0
- Parise – Pageau – Holmstrom4:15
xG 0.11–0.11 (49%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAho – Bolduc12:24
xG 1.26–0.84 (60%)attempts 20–17goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Romanov13:15
xG 0.44–0.38 (54%)attempts 15–20goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock14:59
xG 0.32–0.93 (25%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBatherson – Tkachuk – Stützle4:18
xG 0.48–0.15 (76%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Joseph – Tkachuk – Stützle8:56
xG 0.55–0.31 (64%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Giroux – DeBrincat – Greig10:49
xG 0.77–0.62 (55%)attempts 14–16goals 0–1
- Brassard – Batherson – Pinto8:27
xG 0.45–0.41 (52%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Chabot14:05
xG 0.92–0.52 (64%)attempts 20–16goals 0–0
- Zaitsev – Brannstrom9:16
xG 0.27–0.11 (72%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Sanderson15:59
xG 1.10–1.06 (51%)attempts 29–23goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).