Thu, Jan 26, 2023·Centre Bell, Montreal
Detroit Red Wings 4, Montréal Canadiens 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 110 | 217 | 011 | 14 | 442 |
| MTL | 15 | 210 | 06 | 02 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:54DETMichael RasmussenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 5:54MTLMichael PezzettaAssists: Rafael Harvey-Pinard, Alex Belzile · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 3:56DETJonatan BerggrenPPAssists: Dylan Larkin, Moritz Seider · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 6:57MTLRafael Harvey-PinardSHAssists: Kirby Dach, David Savard · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 13:30DETOskar SundqvistAssists: Dominik Kubalik, Moritz Seider · Deflected, 0.16 xG3–2
- P2 18:39MTLRafael Harvey-PinardAssists: Michael Pezzetta, Alex Belzile · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–3
- OT 2:36DETRobby FabbriGWGAssists: Michael Rasmussen, Moritz Seider · Wrist, 0.29 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P2 0:05MTLKirby Dach: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 0:05DETAndrew Copp: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:29MTLChris Wideman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:38MTLJosh Anderson: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:12DETJake Walman: Interference2 min
- P3 18:56DETMichael Rasmussen: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dach won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Larkin – Raymond12:14
xG 1.04–0.24 (81%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Fabbri – Veleno – Berggren11:09
xG 0.34–0.15 (70%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Perron – Copp – Rasmussen11:33
xG 0.25–0.12 (67%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Sundqvist – Kubalik – Suter8:36
xG 0.24–0.41 (37%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWalman – Seider17:44
xG 0.83–0.31 (73%)attempts 22–13goals 2–0
- Maatta – Oesterle13:27
xG 0.48–0.27 (64%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Hronek16:48
xG 0.45–0.33 (58%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestBelzile – Pezzetta – Harvey-Pinard10:57
xG 0.58–0.47 (55%)attempts 13–13goals 2–0
- Hoffman – Ylonen – Dach8:44
xG 0.03–0.00 (96%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Dvorak – Dach2:13
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Anderson – Suzuki6:55
xG 0.25–0.39 (39%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarris – Xhekaj2:47
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Wideman – Xhekaj6:50
xG 0.34–0.31 (53%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Savard – Xhekaj2:11
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).