Thu, Jan 26, 2023·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Buffalo Sabres 3, Winnipeg Jets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 014 | 214 | 18 | 336 |
| WPG | 06 | 05 | 210 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:32BUFOwen PowerAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Tage Thompson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 14:15BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Alex Tuch, Jeff Skinner · Snap, 0.12 xG2–0
- P3 10:30BUFVictor OlofssonPPGWGAssists: Jeff Skinner, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–0
- P3 15:14WPGNate SchmidtPPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Adam Lowry · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 19:17WPGPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler · Snap, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:45BUFJeff Skinner: Holding2 min
- P1 17:00BUFJJ Peterka: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:45WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:36WPGNate Schmidt: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 14:01BUFPeyton Krebs: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Girgensons won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Thompson11:25
xG 0.82–0.43 (66%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Olofsson – Jost – Mittelstadt9:42
xG 0.59–0.25 (71%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Cozens – Quinn – Peterka7:20
xG 0.28–0.14 (66%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs9:12
xG 0.04–0.05 (44%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Power16:21
xG 1.39–0.19 (88%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Clague – Dahlin13:22
xG 1.24–0.51 (71%)attempts 18–16goals 1–0
- Bryson – Lyubushkin9:39
xG 0.07–0.11 (40%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestMaenalanen – Stenlund – Jonsson-Fjallby3:16
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Lowry – Barron – Kuhlman5:45
xG 0.12–0.15 (45%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Ehlers – Dubois – Perfetti2:31
xG 0.09–0.13 (40%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor4:34
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Morrissey – Pionk4:29
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey11:55
xG 0.38–0.51 (43%)attempts 16–15goals 0–1
- Dillon – Pionk9:46
xG 0.04–0.87 (4%)attempts 2–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).