Thu, Jan 26, 2023·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
New Jersey Devils 4, Nashville Predators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 28 | 110 | 121 | 439 |
| NSH | 222 | 110 | 39 | 641 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:19NJDJesper BrattAssists: Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 12:24NSHCody GlassPPAssists: Tommy Novak, Juuso Parssinen · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–1
- P1 15:57NJDYegor SharangovichAssists: Jack Hughes · Snap, 0.19 xG2–1
- P1 16:20NSHCole SmithAssists: Juuso Parssinen, Colton Sissons · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 4:06NJDJack HughesAssists: Fabian Zetterlund, Dougie Hamilton · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–2
- P2 11:33NSHMikael GranlundAssists: Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–3
- P3 8:49NSHMatt DucheneAssists: Roman Josi · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 16:05NSHFilip ForsbergGWGAssists: Matt Duchene · Snap, 0.06 xG3–5
- P3 17:46NJDDawson MercerAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–5
- P3 19:52NSHTanner JeannotENAssists: Colton Sissons · Wrist, 0.69 xG4–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:59NJDBrendan Smith: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:37NJDMackenzie Blackwood: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:11NSHCody Glass: Interference2 min
- P3 5:22NSHCole Smith: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Palat – Bratt – Hischier11:14
xG 0.67–0.70 (49%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Zetterlund – Sharangovich – Hughes11:52
xG 0.72–0.77 (48%)attempts 13–14goals 2–2
- Tatar – Haula – Mercer9:19
xG 0.26–0.52 (34%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Wood – Bastian – McLeod7:10
xG 0.07–0.54 (11%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Siegenthaler13:28
xG 0.83–0.47 (64%)attempts 15–10goals 2–1
- Severson – Graves14:09
xG 0.74–0.48 (61%)attempts 18–9goals 0–1
- Hamilton – Severson2:28
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Forsberg – Glass13:27
xG 1.14–0.63 (64%)attempts 21–12goals 2–1
- Sissons – Parssinen – Smith8:12
xG 0.72–0.34 (68%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Johansen – Granlund – Niederreiter11:18
xG 0.57–0.66 (47%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Novak – Trenin – Jeannot8:17
xG 0.20–0.28 (41%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Josi16:19
xG 1.20–0.78 (61%)attempts 26–17goals 3–0
- Gravel – Fabbro10:37
xG 0.65–0.49 (57%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- McDonagh – Lauzon2:10
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).