Thu, Jan 26, 2023·Ball Arena, Denver
Anaheim Ducks 5, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 17 | 111 | 314 | 532 |
| COL | 118 | 213 | 013 | 344 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:56COLMikko RantanenAssists: Devon Toews, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 9:46ANAFrank VatranoAssists: Cam Fowler · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 1:13COLSamuel GirardAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Evan Rodrigues · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 16:09COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Samuel Girard, Denis Malgin · Slap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 18:37ANAFrank VatranoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 9:42ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Troy Terry, Simon Benoit · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
- P3 10:06ANAMason McTavishGWGAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Dmitry Kulikov · Snap, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 19:10ANAFrank VatranoENAssists: Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.62 xG5–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 12:20ANASam Carrick: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:37ANAJohn Gibson: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P3 1:54COLMatt Nieto: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:42COLArtturi Lehkonen: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Compher won the faceoff against McTavish
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestVatrano – Jones – McTavish3:41
xG 0.53–0.02 (96%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Strome – Lundeström2:59
xG 0.01–0.01 (62%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Henrique – Terry – Zegras3:48
xG 0.48–0.57 (46%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Silfverberg – Vatrano – Lundeström6:59
xG 0.12–0.25 (32%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- White – Benoit10:56
xG 0.33–0.34 (49%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Fowler – Klingberg4:13
xG 0.02–0.05 (29%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Vaakanainen13:27
xG 0.49–0.92 (35%)attempts 13–20goals 0–2
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNieto – Compher – Rantanen7:49
xG 0.51–0.04 (93%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Nieto – Compher – Newhook2:38
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen5:38
xG 0.36–0.18 (67%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- MacKinnon – Malgin – Meyers2:03
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar14:48
xG 1.33–0.39 (77%)attempts 20–16goals 1–2
- Girard – Makar2:57
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Englund – Girard2:04
xG 0.16–0.04 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).