Thu, Jan 26, 2023·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 19 | 314 | 16 | 529 |
| CGY | 16 | 011 | 018 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:47CHITaylor RaddyshAssists: Max Domi, Philipp Kurashev · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 19:32CGYJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Nazem Kadri, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 9:39CHIBoris KatchoukGWGAssists: Luke Philp, Ian Mitchell · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 15:37CHIJason DickinsonAssists: Patrick Kane, Andreas Athanasiou · Snap, 0.17 xG3–1
- P2 16:09CHISam LaffertyAssists: Colin Blackwell, MacKenzie Entwistle · Snap, 0.08 xG4–1
- P3 19:17CHIConnor MurphyENAssists: Boris Katchouk · Wrist, 0.53 xG5–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:05CHIJason Dickinson: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:29CGYMikael Backlund: Holding2 min
- P3 12:42CHIColin Blackwell: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:05CHILuke Philp: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Domi won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDomi – Raddysh – Kurashev12:50
xG 0.94–0.55 (63%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Blackwell – Lafferty – Entwistle8:30
xG 0.75–0.47 (61%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Kane – Athanasiou – Dickinson11:56
xG 0.36–0.39 (48%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
- Philp – Katchouk – Johnson9:51
xG 0.16–0.48 (24%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Murphy15:35
xG 0.90–0.57 (61%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
- Jones – Mitchell14:38
xG 0.91–0.81 (53%)attempts 14–15goals 2–0
- Jones – Jones2:04
xG 0.02–0.03 (38%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Huberdeau – Pelletier3:31
xG 0.52–0.07 (88%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane4:45
xG 0.32–0.19 (63%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Kadri – Coleman – Huberdeau6:32
xG 0.39–0.34 (53%)attempts 10–9goals 1–2
- Toffoli – Lindholm – Dube12:39
xG 0.29–0.29 (50%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson16:46
xG 0.58–0.51 (53%)attempts 18–8goals 1–1
- Stone – Mackey12:00
xG 1.19–1.15 (51%)attempts 21–16goals 0–1
- Weegar – Zadorov18:22
xG 0.61–0.74 (45%)attempts 19–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).