Thu, Jan 26, 2023·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Minnesota Wild 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 110 | 011 | 18 | 01 | 230 |
| MIN | 07 | 19 | 15 | 12 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:14PHINoah CatesAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 3:39MINMatt BoldyAssists: Marcus Foligno, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 4:48MINMatt BoldyPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 18:32PHITony DeAngeloAssists: Kevin Hayes, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- OT 2:08MINMats ZuccarelloGWGAssists: Calen Addison, Matt Boldy · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–3
Penalties (16)
- P1 9:56PHINicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:56MINRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:11MINMason Shaw: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:11PHIWade Allison: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:12MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:12PHIZack MacEwen: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:45MINBrandon Duhaime: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:45PHIPatrick Brown: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:33MINCalen Addison: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:25MINKirill Kaprizov: Interference2 min
- P2 17:07PHIPatrick Brown: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:53MINSam Steel: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:09PHIScott Laughton: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 12:11PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:11MINMarcus Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:11PHITravis Konecny: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cates won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Laughton – Tippett5:21
xG 0.23–0.04 (86%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Hayes – Laughton – Allison4:34
xG 0.22–0.25 (47%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Konecny – Cates2:19
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Tippett – Frost8:24
xG 0.30–0.38 (44%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Seeler – Ristolainen11:10
xG 0.51–0.66 (44%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Sanheim – DeAngelo12:07
xG 0.42–0.67 (39%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Provorov – York15:58
xG 0.41–0.94 (30%)attempts 10–19goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Kaprizov – Steel14:08
xG 1.11–0.56 (67%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Reaves – Shaw – Dewar3:31
xG 0.04–0.01 (80%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek8:13
xG 0.31–0.35 (47%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Duhaime – Boldy5:36
xG 0.04–0.54 (6%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Addison10:22
xG 0.72–0.27 (73%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Middleton15:31
xG 0.76–0.61 (55%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Brodin – Dumba15:35
xG 0.45–0.42 (51%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).