Fri, Jan 27, 2023·UBS Arena, Elmont
Detroit Red Wings 0, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 05 | 013 | 05 | 023 |
| NYI | 09 | 110 | 110 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:44NYIAnders LeeGWGAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Brock Nelson · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
- P3 4:31NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:40DETOlli Maatta: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:22NYIJean-Gabriel Pageau: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:54DETJoseph Veleno: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:29NYIScott Mayfield: Holding2 min
- P2 7:10DETJonatan Berggren: Holding2 min
- P2 13:27NYIZach Parise: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 19:14DETDavid Perron: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:14NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:55NYIMathew Barzal: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:14DETPius Suter: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Kubalik – Erne – Suter4:02
xG 0.02–0.06 (25%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Erne – Rasmussen – Suter2:17
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Larkin – Raymond9:01
xG 0.13–0.49 (21%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Fabbri – Veleno – Berggren8:27
xG 0.06–0.52 (11%)attempts 2–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Walman – Seider11:53
xG 0.33–0.46 (42%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Hronek9:58
xG 0.20–0.66 (23%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
- Maatta – Lindstrom8:59
xG 0.10–0.67 (13%)attempts 8–10goals 0–2
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Lee – Nelson9:33
xG 1.03–0.27 (79%)attempts 15–5goals 2–0
- Cizikas – Barzal – Beauvillier6:03
xG 0.64–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 0–0
- Parise – Pageau – Holmstrom7:01
xG 0.29–0.15 (66%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Barzal – Beauvillier – Räty2:09
xG 0.10–0.02 (85%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock13:58
xG 1.07–0.26 (80%)attempts 17–11goals 2–0
- Mayfield – Romanov14:42
xG 0.75–0.42 (64%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Aho – Bolduc7:33
xG 0.19–0.10 (67%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).