Fri, Jan 27, 2023·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Los Angeles Kings 4, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 213 | 19 | 111 | 433 |
| FLA | 012 | 217 | 119 | 348 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:25LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Quinton Byfield, Adrian Kempe · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 17:58LAKAdrian KempeSHAssists: Blake Lizotte · Snap, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 9:58LAKViktor ArvidssonSHAssists: Mikey Anderson, Phillip Danault · Snap, 0.26 xG3–0
- P2 13:23FLARyan LombergAssists: Nick Cousins, Eric Staal · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 16:19FLABrandon MontourAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Carter Verhaeghe · Slap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 18:58LAKMatt RoyENGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.42 xG4–2
- P3 19:26FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 16:50LAKQuinton Byfield: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:26LAKTobias Bjornfot: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:57FLAAaron Ekblad: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:57LAKAlex Turcotte: Boarding5 min
- P3 5:30FLAAleksander Barkov: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:56LAKSean Durzi: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:25LAKSean Durzi: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:18FLACarter Verhaeghe: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:18FLARyan Lomberg: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:18LAKKevin Fiala: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- Kupari – Fagemo – Turcotte4:46
xG 0.09–0.44 (17%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Fiala – Anderson-Dolan – Lizotte9:42
xG 0.34–0.85 (29%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Danault – Arvidsson – Iafallo10:39
xG 0.28–1.12 (20%)attempts 7–19goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield8:39
xG 0.33–1.60 (17%)attempts 8–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Walker – Bjornfot10:41
xG 0.39–0.68 (36%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Roy – Durzi14:11
xG 0.55–0.97 (36%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
- Doughty – Anderson13:16
xG 0.54–2.59 (17%)attempts 13–29goals 1–2
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk12:01
xG 1.62–0.46 (78%)attempts 25–12goals 1–0
- Staal – Cousins – Lomberg2:59
xG 0.45–0.19 (71%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Barkov – Reinhart – Lundell8:18
xG 0.52–0.29 (64%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Cousins – Lomberg – Luostarinen2:48
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Mahura8:35
xG 1.84–0.11 (94%)attempts 20–7goals 1–0
- Ekblad – Montour3:59
xG 0.41–0.05 (89%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Montour9:26
xG 0.50–0.28 (64%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).