Fri, Jan 27, 2023·PNC Arena, Raleigh
San Jose Sharks 4, Carolina Hurricanes 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 17 | 09 | 313 | 01 | 430 |
| CAR | 16 | 016 | 312 | 12 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:10SJSOskar LindblomAssists: Evgeny Svechnikov, Steven Lorentz · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 17:33CARCalvin de HaanAssists: Dylan Coghlan, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 0:17CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Stefan Noesen · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 6:50SJSNick BoninoAssists: Michael Eyssimont · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P3 11:15SJSMichael EyssimontAssists: Nico Sturm, Mario Ferraro · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 18:08SJSMario FerraroENAssists: Michael Eyssimont · Wrist, 0.38 xG4–2
- P3 18:23CARSebastian AhoAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Jalen Chatfield · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 19:48CARMartin NecasAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–4
- OT 0:55CARMartin NecasGWGAssists: Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 4:02CARJordan Martinook: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:45SJSNico Sturm: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:31SJSNico Sturm: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 8:47CARBrady Skjei: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestLindblom – Svechnikov – Lorentz6:36
xG 0.23–0.06 (79%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Couture – Eyssimont – Barabanov10:27
xG 0.39–0.35 (53%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Bonino – Gregor – Sturm9:52
xG 0.74–0.72 (51%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Hertl – Labanc – Meier15:05
xG 0.09–0.28 (25%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Megna20:08
xG 0.66–0.35 (66%)attempts 17–13goals 1–1
- Harrington – Benning10:34
xG 0.44–0.26 (63%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Ferraro12:47
xG 0.62–0.78 (44%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Fast – Martinook14:28
xG 0.30–0.09 (77%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Necas – Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov12:51
xG 0.97–0.83 (54%)attempts 21–12goals 1–1
- Stastny – Stepan – Noesen6:22
xG 0.23–0.15 (60%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Teravainen – Aho – Jarvis12:11
xG 0.47–0.51 (48%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Coghlan10:15
xG 0.76–0.49 (61%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Burns – Chatfield13:40
xG 0.51–0.27 (66%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Skjei – Pesce21:30
xG 0.51–0.73 (41%)attempts 19–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).