Fri, Jan 27, 2023·Madison Square Garden, New York
Vegas Golden Knights 1, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 016 | 19 | 09 | 134 |
| NYR | 214 | 013 | 213 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:08NYRChris KreiderAssists: Vincent Trocheck · Deflected, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 19:17NYRVincent TrocheckGWGAssists: Barclay Goodrow, Ryan Lindgren · Snap, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 4:57VGKPhil KesselAssists: William Carrier, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 14:20NYRFilip ChytilAssists: Braden Schneider, Ben Harpur · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 18:36NYRJimmy VeseyENAssists: Braden Schneider · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:43NYRBarclay Goodrow: Holding2 min
- P2 0:02VGKKeegan Kolesar: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:02NYRWill Cuylle: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:14NYRArtemi Panarin: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:18VGKNicolas Hague: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:50VGKBrayden McNabb: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Leschyshyn won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKolesar – Roy – Howden8:00
xG 0.41–0.32 (56%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Marchessault – Eichel – Cotter2:01
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Kessel – Stephenson – Carrier9:12
xG 0.41–0.37 (53%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault12:07
xG 0.55–0.65 (46%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Hague12:02
xG 0.62–0.33 (65%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- McNabb – Theodore15:58
xG 0.61–0.44 (58%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Martinez – Pietrangelo13:08
xG 0.76–0.78 (49%)attempts 13–19goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Trocheck – Goodrow10:10
xG 0.60–0.26 (70%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- Chytil – Kakko – Lafrenière12:25
xG 0.44–0.31 (59%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Gauthier – Leschyshyn – Cuylle5:05
xG 0.14–0.01 (93%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Vesey – Panarin12:50
xG 0.65–0.84 (44%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren17:34
xG 1.08–0.82 (57%)attempts 28–11goals 1–0
- Trouba – Miller14:11
xG 0.62–0.53 (54%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Harpur – Schneider12:11
xG 0.07–0.56 (12%)attempts 3–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).