Fri, Jan 27, 2023·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Vancouver Canucks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 17 | 06 | 113 | 226 |
| VAN | 313 | 010 | 211 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:25VANElias PetterssonSHAssists: Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 2:08CBJKirill MarchenkoPPAssists: Adam Boqvist, Patrik Laine · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 13:21VANQuinn HughesPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Bo Horvat · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P1 19:15VANIlya MikheyevGWGAssists: Brock Boeser, Bo Horvat · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 8:20VANDakota JoshuaAssists: Bo Horvat, Brock Boeser · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–4
- P3 12:52VANElias PetterssonPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes · Slap, 0.14 xG1–5
- P3 16:52CBJKirill MarchenkoPPAssists: Boone Jenner, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:16VANJ.T. Miller: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 12:42CBJSean Kuraly: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:35VANOliver Ekman-Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:48CBJMathieu Olivier: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:13VANOliver Ekman-Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:00CBJErik Gudbranson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 15:50VANTyler Myers: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 18:57CBJGavin Bayreuther: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuraly won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestRoslovic – Bemstrom – Foudy5:09
xG 0.21–0.06 (78%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Olivier – Foudy4:41
xG 0.19–0.04 (83%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Bemstrom – Robinson – Sillinger2:39
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Olivier – Robinson6:40
xG 0.11–0.11 (51%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBayreuther – Boqvist11:27
xG 0.58–0.32 (65%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Gavrikov – Peeke15:20
xG 0.37–0.66 (36%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Berni16:02
xG 0.33–0.78 (30%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Joshua – Garland9:37
xG 0.66–0.07 (90%)attempts 18–2goals 0–0
- Pederson – Pettersson – Kuzmenko8:05
xG 0.31–0.31 (50%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Lazar – Studnicka – Dries7:17
xG 0.24–0.28 (46%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Horvat – Boeser – Mikheyev10:03
xG 0.15–0.35 (30%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBear – Hughes14:04
xG 0.87–0.31 (74%)attempts 17–10goals 2–0
- Schenn – Ekman-Larsson11:14
xG 0.60–0.57 (51%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Schenn – Stillman2:43
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).