Sat, Jan 28, 2023·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Boston Bruins 3, Florida Panthers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 117 | 118 | 16 | 00 | 341 |
| FLA | 09 | 114 | 213 | 11 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:50BOSCraig SmithUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 8:55FLABrandon MontourAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 17:55BOSCharlie CoyleUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG2–1
- P3 8:29FLASam BennettAssists: Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 19:11BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 19:57FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- OT 0:17FLASam ReinhartGWGAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Anton Lundell · Slap, 0.07 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:50BOSNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:50FLARyan Lomberg: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:26BOSBrad Marchand: Holding2 min
- P1 12:12FLASam Bennett: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 6:20FLACarter Verhaeghe: Interference2 min
- P2 13:20FLAGivani Smith: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak2:53
xG 0.42–0.03 (93%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Krejci – Pastrnak – Zacha6:10
xG 0.28–0.02 (92%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Hall5:15
xG 0.23–0.26 (46%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Krejci – Hall – Pastrnak2:13
xG 0.06–0.14 (32%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy12:40
xG 1.66–0.39 (81%)attempts 13–11goals 2–0
- Lindholm – Clifton13:11
xG 1.30–0.58 (69%)attempts 23–15goals 0–1
- Forbort – Carlo11:32
xG 0.27–0.43 (39%)attempts 9–20goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Lomberg – Luostarinen10:20
xG 0.51–0.33 (61%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Staal – Barkov – Reinhart2:32
xG 0.55–0.39 (58%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Staal – Tierney – Smith3:05
xG 0.08–0.33 (19%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Barkov – Reinhart – Lundell10:07
xG 0.24–0.72 (25%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Montour14:45
xG 0.98–0.89 (52%)attempts 21–14goals 1–1
- Gudas – Mahura9:36
xG 0.17–0.47 (26%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Ekblad – Forsling19:48
xG 1.13–2.23 (34%)attempts 23–24goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).