Sat, Jan 28, 2023·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Montréal Canadiens 0, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 08 | 016 | 04 | 028 |
| OTT | 010 | 315 | 211 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:22OTTAlex DeBrincatGWGAssists: Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 7:59OTTClaude GirouxPPAssists: Ridly Greig, Jake Sanderson · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 9:32OTTClaude GirouxUnassisted · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–3
- P3 18:34OTTMathieu JosephENAssists: Nick Holden · Wrist, 0.39 xG0–4
- P3 19:12OTTDerick BrassardAssists: Drake Batherson, Nick Holden · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–5
Penalties (6)
- P2 4:17MTLMike Hoffman: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:18MTLKirby Dach: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:27OTTMathieu Joseph: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:56MTLJustin Barron: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 12:20OTTThomas Chabot: Holding2 min
- P3 16:36OTTTravis Hamonic: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stützle won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Hoffman – Dach12:32
xG 1.01–0.60 (63%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Belzile – Pezzetta – Harvey-Pinard5:57
xG 0.04–0.22 (15%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Anderson – Pitlick – Suzuki11:55
xG 0.43–0.88 (33%)attempts 9–18goals 0–2
- Dvorak – Ylonen – Beck6:50
xG 0.07–0.62 (10%)attempts 2–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKovacevic – Harris10:46
xG 0.41–0.36 (53%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Matheson – Barron14:24
xG 0.83–0.96 (46%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
- Savard – Xhekaj14:02
xG 0.49–0.91 (35%)attempts 13–19goals 0–2
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – DeBrincat – Greig10:08
xG 0.96–0.32 (75%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Brassard – Batherson – Pinto7:37
xG 0.76–0.23 (76%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Joseph – Tkachuk – Stützle9:49
xG 0.26–0.45 (36%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Motte – Gambrell – Kelly9:18
xG 0.05–0.47 (10%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zaitsev15:19
xG 0.83–0.49 (63%)attempts 20–13goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Sanderson14:01
xG 0.62–0.48 (56%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Holden – Brannstrom8:10
xG 0.60–0.58 (51%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).