Sat, Jan 28, 2023·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
San Jose Sharks 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 211 | 213 | 28 | 632 |
| PIT | 212 | 110 | 119 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:25SJSMichael EyssimontAssists: Logan Couture, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 5:45PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Rickard Rakell, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 12:55PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Jake Guentzel · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–2
- P1 19:53SJSErik KarlssonAssists: Alexander Barabanov, Steven Lorentz · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 4:54SJSNoah GregorAssists: Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
- P2 14:54PITRyan PoehlingSHAssists: Brian Dumoulin · Snap, 0.13 xG3–3
- P2 17:07SJSAlexander BarabanovAssists: Logan Couture, Matt Benning · Slap, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 10:06PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–4
- P3 15:35SJSLogan CoutureGWGAssists: Alexander Barabanov, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–4
- P3 19:50SJSLogan CoutureENAssists: Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.62 xG6–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:37SJSJacob MacDonald: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 12:46SJSEvgeny Svechnikov: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 1:21PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:49SJSJonah Gadjovich: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:49PITMarcus Pettersson: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:15PITJake Guentzel: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:41SJSMichael Eyssimont: Holding2 min
- P3 11:35SJSEvgeny Svechnikov: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Eyssimont – Barabanov8:39
xG 1.26–0.24 (84%)attempts 17–7goals 3–0
- Hertl – Meier – Gregor13:29
xG 0.69–0.85 (45%)attempts 18–22goals 0–0
- Svechnikov – Lorentz – Gadjovich6:57
xG 0.25–0.43 (37%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Bonino – Lindblom – Sturm8:22
xG 0.12–0.86 (12%)attempts 2–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Ferraro4:26
xG 0.62–0.18 (78%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
- Karlsson – Megna17:31
xG 0.93–0.77 (55%)attempts 17–16goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Ferraro8:56
xG 0.55–0.63 (46%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Blueger – McGinn9:57
xG 0.65–0.15 (81%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Rust3:10
xG 0.35–0.12 (74%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rakell – Guentzel4:56
xG 0.50–0.39 (56%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Heinen – Poehling – O'Connor5:17
xG 0.08–0.32 (20%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRuhwedel – Joseph9:24
xG 0.65–0.29 (69%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Letang – Pettersson3:11
xG 0.47–0.13 (78%)attempts 11–2goals 0–1
- Letang – Joseph2:23
xG 0.09–0.07 (55%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).