Sat, Jan 28, 2023·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Buffalo Sabres 2, Minnesota Wild 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 19 | 111 | 010 | 01 | 1 | 231 |
| MIN | 113 | 19 | 010 | 03 | 3 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:22BUFJack QuinnUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 3:35MINJoel Eriksson EkPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 9:50BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Kyle Okposo, Peyton Krebs · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 12:39MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Frederick Gaudreau, Jake Middleton · Snap, 0.16 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MIN Mats Zuccarello scored
- 2. BUF Tage Thompson scored
- 3. MIN Kirill Kaprizov scored
- 4. BUF Jack Quinn stopped
- 5. MIN Frederick Gaudreau scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:24BUFJacob Bryson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:12MINConnor Dewar: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:03BUFRasmus Dahlin: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:24BUFTage Thompson: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:31BUFAlex Tuch: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Steel won the faceoff against Krebs
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOlofsson – Mittelstadt – Peterka3:27
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs10:41
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Skinner – Olofsson – Mittelstadt6:42
xG 0.39–0.20 (66%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Jost – Mittelstadt2:21
xG 0.07–0.01 (93%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClague – Dahlin15:03
xG 0.54–0.24 (69%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Bryson – Lyubushkin8:06
xG 0.40–0.40 (50%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- Jokiharju – Power18:10
xG 0.37–0.79 (32%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Kaprizov – Steel14:28
xG 0.48–0.24 (67%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Foligno – Gaudreau – Boldy9:57
xG 0.55–0.32 (63%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Hartman – Greenway – Eriksson Ek10:18
xG 0.35–0.41 (46%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Reaves – Duhaime – Dewar7:30
xG 0.11–0.52 (17%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Middleton16:33
xG 0.82–0.58 (59%)attempts 19–16goals 1–1
- Spurgeon – Brodin2:13
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba20:22
xG 0.87–0.98 (47%)attempts 16–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).