Tue, Jan 31, 2023·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Los Angeles Kings 4, Carolina Hurricanes 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 08 | 48 | 04 | 01 | 421 |
| CAR | 19 | 08 | 39 | 14 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:27CARBrent BurnsAssists: Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 1:51LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 11:34LAKKevin FialaAssists: Blake Lizotte · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 14:21LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar · Snap, 0.17 xG3–1
- P2 15:21LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Jaret Anderson-Dolan, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–1
- P3 3:27CARPaul StastnyAssists: Derek Stepan, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–2
- P3 9:54CARJordan StaalAssists: Brett Pesce, Jesper Fast · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 12:31CARTeuvo TeravainenPPAssists: Brady Skjei, Andrei Svechnikov · Slap, 0.08 xG4–4
- OT 4:06CARSebastian AhoPPGWGAssists: Brent Burns, Martin Necas · Snap, 0.15 xG4–5
Penalties (4)
- P2 5:14CARTeuvo Teravainen: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:15CARTeuvo Teravainen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:10LAKQuinton Byfield: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- OT 3:14LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Arvidsson – Iafallo14:10
xG 0.79–0.57 (58%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Lemieux – Kupari – Turcotte6:07
xG 0.16–0.15 (52%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Fiala – Anderson-Dolan – Lizotte14:15
xG 0.16–0.36 (30%)attempts 6–14goals 1–1
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield14:07
xG 0.43–1.18 (27%)attempts 9–17goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Durzi16:14
xG 0.52–0.31 (63%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
- Doughty – Roy2:18
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Edler – Walker15:25
xG 0.57–0.92 (38%)attempts 11–16goals 1–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Fast – Martinook11:57
xG 1.18–0.44 (73%)attempts 15–9goals 1–2
- Necas – Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov10:32
xG 0.30–0.01 (96%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Noesen – Aho – Necas5:19
xG 0.27–0.05 (85%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Jarvis10:48
xG 0.37–0.42 (47%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce19:56
xG 1.91–0.59 (76%)attempts 33–11goals 1–2
- de Haan – Coghlan13:23
xG 0.38–0.10 (79%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Burns – Chatfield20:43
xG 0.22–0.73 (23%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).