Tue, Jan 31, 2023·Centre Bell, Montreal
Ottawa Senators 5, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 211 | 112 | 26 | 529 |
| MTL | 14 | 115 | 213 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:57OTTClaude GirouxAssists: Nikita Zaitsev, Thomas Chabot · Deflected, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 3:49OTTTim StützleAssists: Mathieu Joseph, Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–0
- P1 13:20MTLKirby DachPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–1
- P2 16:23OTTAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Tim Stützle, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 19:55MTLMike HoffmanPPAssists: Mike Matheson · Slap, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 11:02MTLRafael Harvey-PinardAssists: Nick Suzuki, Josh Anderson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 12:14OTTTim StützlePPAssists: Thomas Chabot, Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 14:16MTLRafael Harvey-PinardAssists: Josh Anderson, David Savard · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–4
- P3 18:42OTTBrady TkachukGWGAssists: Tim Stützle, Mathieu Joseph · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:23OTTDylan Gambrell: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:31OTTTravis Hamonic: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 1:25OTTThomas Chabot: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:11MTLRafael Harvey-Pinard: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:53OTTThomas Chabot: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:48MTLJohnathan Kovacevic: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:30OTTJake Sanderson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:47MTLJustin Barron: Boarding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestJoseph – Tkachuk – Stützle10:08
xG 0.63–0.32 (67%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Giroux – DeBrincat – Greig11:47
xG 0.47–0.37 (56%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Motte – Gambrell – Kelly6:28
xG 0.38–0.36 (51%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Brassard – Batherson – Pinto8:47
xG 0.19–0.31 (38%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zaitsev15:42
xG 1.08–0.61 (64%)attempts 17–17goals 3–1
- Holden – Chabot2:47
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Holden – Brannstrom8:33
xG 0.48–0.43 (52%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestAnderson – Suzuki – Harvey-Pinard7:43
xG 0.93–0.09 (91%)attempts 17–2goals 2–0
- Dvorak – Pitlick – Ylonen4:06
xG 0.20–0.09 (68%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Belzile – Dvorak – Pitlick2:31
xG 0.08–0.06 (57%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- Anderson – Pitlick – Suzuki4:22
xG 0.11–0.19 (36%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Barron9:26
xG 0.36–0.20 (64%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Kovacevic – Harris11:58
xG 0.33–0.45 (43%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Wideman – Harris2:21
xG 0.05–0.19 (19%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).