Tue, Jan 31, 2023·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Washington Capitals 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 211 | 19 | 013 | 11 | 434 |
| CBJ | 19 | 112 | 113 | 00 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:06WSHGarnet HathawayAssists: Lars Eller, Nick Jensen · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 14:28WSHTrevor van RiemsdykAssists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel · Snap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P1 14:40CBJAndrew PeekeAssists: Patrik Laine · Snap, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 8:26WSHTrevor van RiemsdykAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Erik Gustafsson · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–1
- P2 11:03CBJEric RobinsonAssists: Mathieu Olivier · Snap, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 12:44CBJJohnny GaudreauAssists: Gavin Bayreuther · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- OT 0:26WSHEvgeny KuznetsovGWGAssists: Marcus Johansson, Erik Gustafsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:19WSHMarcus Johansson: Holding2 min
- P1 7:39WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:39CBJKent Johnson: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:20WSHConor Sheary: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:20CBJVladislav Gavrikov: Embellishment2 min
- P2 6:00CBJMathieu Olivier: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:00WSHMartin Fehérváry: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:51CBJKirill Marchenko: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestSheary – Hathaway – Strome2:57
xG 0.48–0.04 (92%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Mantha – Milano10:52
xG 0.28–0.29 (49%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Eller – Hathaway – Aube-Kubel4:32
xG 0.23–0.34 (41%)attempts 6–8goals 2–0
- Ovechkin – Eller – Aube-Kubel6:41
xG 0.24–0.38 (39%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Fehérváry3:35
xG 0.60–0.15 (80%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Jensen – Irwin2:50
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Gustafsson – van Riemsdyk12:28
xG 0.77–0.61 (56%)attempts 21–10goals 2–2
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestKuraly – Olivier – Robinson13:09
xG 1.07–0.07 (94%)attempts 20–7goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Laine15:17
xG 0.78–0.16 (83%)attempts 21–10goals 2–0
- Roslovic – Bemstrom – Foudy6:03
xG 0.10–0.36 (22%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Marchenko – Johnson – Sillinger12:24
xG 0.22–0.63 (26%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gudbranson – Berni17:10
xG 0.52–0.63 (45%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
- Bayreuther – Bjork9:35
xG 0.49–0.66 (42%)attempts 10–11goals 0–2
- Gavrikov – Peeke17:01
xG 0.57–0.97 (37%)attempts 19–14goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).