Mon, Feb 6, 2023·Madison Square Garden, New York
Calgary Flames 4, New York Rangers 5 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 112 | 112 | 28 | 00 | 432 |
| NYR | 110 | 29 | 19 | 15 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:37NYRFilip ChytilAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Adam Fox · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 10:25CGYBlake ColemanAssists: Andrew Mangiapane · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 2:02NYRFilip ChytilUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 16:25CGYTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Elias Lindholm · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 19:46NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Chris Kreider, Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 6:38CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Noah Hanifin, Mikael Backlund · Deflected, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 8:41CGYMichael StoneAssists: Mikael Backlund, Blake Coleman · Slap, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 12:55NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Artemi Panarin, Jimmy Vesey · Deflected, 0.11 xG4–4
- OT 1:37NYRAlexis LafrenièreGWGAssists: Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–5
Penalties (14)
- P1 7:15NYRBen Harpur: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:57NYRJacob Trouba: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:57CGYChris Tanev: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:57CGYChris Tanev: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:16NYRWill Cuylle: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:16CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:16CGYMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:43NYRArtemi Panarin: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 19:04NYRJacob Trouba: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:04CGYDillon Dube: Instigator2 min · PPG
- P2 19:04CGYDillon Dube: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:04CGYDillon Dube: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:19NYRVincent Trocheck: Tripping2 min
- OT 1:37CGYJacob Markstrom: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Mangiapane9:48
xG 0.65–0.19 (78%)attempts 12–5goals 3–0
- Toffoli – Lindholm – Dube7:42
xG 0.17–0.31 (35%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Lewis – Lucic – Ruzicka7:25
xG 0.11–0.32 (25%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Pelletier9:18
xG 0.10–0.33 (24%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Tanev – Weegar14:28
xG 0.32–0.30 (52%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Stone – Zadorov13:20
xG 0.51–0.78 (39%)attempts 18–16goals 1–1
- Hanifin – Andersson16:20
xG 0.46–0.88 (34%)attempts 16–18goals 2–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Trocheck – Goodrow12:11
xG 0.50–0.27 (65%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Chytil – Kakko – Lafrenière10:48
xG 0.50–0.31 (62%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Zibanejad – Vesey – Panarin11:14
xG 0.63–0.49 (56%)attempts 14–10goals 1–2
- Blais – Leschyshyn – Cuylle6:38
xG 0.10–0.22 (31%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarpur – Schneider12:07
xG 0.58–0.24 (71%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Fox – Lindgren15:31
xG 0.73–0.64 (53%)attempts 15–13goals 2–1
- Trouba – Miller14:08
xG 0.36–0.48 (43%)attempts 10–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).