Tue, Feb 7, 2023·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Colorado Avalanche 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 013 | 116 | 010 | 03 | 142 |
| PIT | 06 | 010 | 118 | 14 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:21COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Bowen Byram, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P3 16:22PITBryan RustAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Jason Zucker · Deflected, 0.15 xG1–1
- OT 3:36PITKris LetangGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P2 9:11COLArtturi Lehkonen: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:09PITJake Guentzel: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:05PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:45PITBryan Rust: Hooking2 min
- OT 1:21PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Nichushkin9:37
xG 0.30–0.35 (46%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Compher – Rantanen – Rodrigues10:06
xG 0.62–0.88 (41%)attempts 7–21goals 0–1
- Cogliano – O'Connor – Newhook4:54
xG 0.11–0.56 (17%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Toews4:12
xG 0.78–0.42 (65%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Girard – Makar2:14
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Toews – Girard3:01
xG 0.12–0.11 (53%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Zucker – Rust11:55
xG 0.92–0.47 (66%)attempts 22–8goals 1–0
- Carter – McGinn – Kapanen6:38
xG 0.18–0.07 (71%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Archibald – Blueger – Poehling5:53
xG 0.06–0.12 (32%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rakell – Guentzel15:35
xG 1.08–1.44 (43%)attempts 28–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin19:19
xG 1.02–0.92 (53%)attempts 27–20goals 0–0
- Letang – Pettersson3:00
xG 0.09–0.20 (30%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Petry – Pettersson16:16
xG 0.76–1.02 (43%)attempts 16–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).